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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.